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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones near remote Japan's territory as China escalates strains following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.